As the U.S. election results set the stage for an uncertain future, Europe faces an urgent question: Can it continue to rely on an America, whose commitments may shift with each election, to be its primary defender, or will it listen to America’s calls to step up its game?
For decades, European security has been anchored by the U.S., a partner whose commitment to NATO felt as steady as the tides. Under Trump, the U.S. has signaled a shift, with remarks questioning NATO’s value and suggesting an “America First” approach that could leave Europe more exposed. Europe must decide —and quickly— whether it’s ready to take charge of its own defense, or risk being left exposed in an unpredictable world.
A Call for Fairer Burden Sharing
Trump’s criticism of NATO allies’ defense spending has long highlighted his belief that the alliance’s burden should be shared equally, not disproportionately shouldered by the U.S. With his recent election victory, this issue gains renewed urgency.
Trump’s stance is clear: the U.S. should not be paying the lion’s share to defend NATO while others fall short. Meeting the 2% GDP target, which was once a guideline, may soon be non-negotiable for European allies, and under Trump’s leadership, it is very likely that threshold might even increase. His push for a truly two-way partnership reflects a vision of NATO where each member carries its fair share in an era of growing security threats.
Europe’s Fragile Defense: A Dependency Too Costly to Ignore
European militaries, once formidable, have shrunk considerably since the end of the Cold War, leaving many nations with what NATO officials call “bonsai armies” – small, symbolic forces incapable of sustained combat. About 100,000 American troops are currently stationed in Europe, a temporary increase in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Even with this U.S. presence, Europe’s forces are stretched thin.
As former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense, Jim Townsend points out, even well-regarded militaries, like those of Britain and Denmark, could sustain intense combat for a few weeks, limited by their size and capacity. The British Army, at its smallest since Waterloo, and Germany’s struggling Bundeswehr, which is still short of minimum readiness standards, reveal a continent ill-prepared to face a direct threat.
European leaders need to wake up to the reality that war could come to their doorstep; a one-way partnership with the U.S. will not guarantee safety. The time has come for Europe to rebuild a defense force that can stand on its own and together with the U.S.
Europe’s Bridge to the U.S.
As European leaders grapple with shifting U.S. expectations, they have already turned to Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a close ally of Trump, who may serve as a bridge between Europe and the U.S. Despite ongoing tensions between the European Union and Hungary, Orban’s connection to Trump uniquely positions him as a conduit for transatlantic communication. If Europe wants to remain under the U.S. security umbrella, it must step up now, making the necessary changes to become an equal partner in defense. The coming months will be pivotal as Europe recalibrates its approach, balancing increased defense responsibilities while maintaining strong U.S. ties. How European leaders navigate these new dynamics will shape the alliance’s future and the continent’s security stance in a rapidly changing world.
The U.S. election has highlighted Europe’s need to reassess its defense strategy. With Washington calling for fairer burden-sharing, Europe must strengthen its military capabilities to remain a credible NATO partner. The path forward requires decisive action, as Europe’s security – and its standing as an ally – depends on its willingness to step up.
Acknowledgement: The ideas and opinions expressed in this article are those of the respective author and do not represent Our National Conversation.
