Recent Migration Patterns Spell Trouble for Democrats

Every year, the Census Bureau releases fresh data detailing patterns of migration within the United States. Since 2020, those patterns have pointed to trouble ahead for Democrats. Blue states like California and New York continue to hemorrhage residents to states in the Sun Belt, all but guaranteeing that both states will lose representation in the U.S. House and Electoral College next decade. That could close key Democratic pathways to an Electoral College majority, essentially forcing the party to win in large Sun Belt states in addition to sweeping the industrial Midwest.