Kyiv or Kiev?
The outcome of the Ukraine War will greatly depend on who wins the U.S. Presidential election in November. This is not a secret. Ukraine’s defense is dependent on support from the U.S. and NATO, the latter being dependent on the United States. The two candidates have differing policies in mind regarding the war, should they come into office.
War on the Spectrum
When former President Trump was asked which side he wanted to win the war, he replied “I want everyone to stop dying.” He desires an end to the death and destruction in Europe, the war and, consequentially, the money pit.
Trump has repeatedly claimed that if he is elected president again that he will end the war in “24 hours.” His outlook on the conflict is that it is a tragedy that needs to be halted as soon as possible. He claims that, had he been in office, the war never would have started in the first place.
However, Vice President Kamala Harris, asserts the need to continue to stand up to Russian aggression, naming Russian President Vladimir Putin a "brutal tyrant." She believes that the source of U.S. power is its history of standing against tyranny and defending the ideals of democracy. She believes that defending Ukraine is crucial to protect the international principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Harris also asserts that the war in Ukraine is a matter of American security, claiming that if international norms are threatened anywhere, they are threatened everywhere. She also believes that if Russia is victorious, other “would-be aggressor” nations might be emboldened to use force to gain territory.
Between a Rock and a Hard Place
There have now been over one million casualties in the Russo-Ukrainian War. A war that was estimated to last two weeks has raged on for over two years. What could have been a bloodless negotiation has become an eternal meat grinder, with no end in sight.
In "The Laws of Nations," Emer de Vattel – a profoundly influential political philosopher – said, “A nation that does not defend itself, or that cannot do so, does not deserve the name of a sovereign state; it is subject to the will of others.”
Ukraine cannot defend itself without the aid of NATO. This would suggest that war in Ukraine is not a fight over its sovereignty, but rather a contest between spheres of influence seeking to absorb Ukraine, or more colloquially, American global hegemony versus Putin’s Russia.
Realism vs Idealism
Trump’s perspective is that of a realist. He sees the human and economic cost of the war as so significant that it is not worth continuing. Ukraine reached its peak of foreign financial and military aid in the Summer of 2023 - right before a miserably failed counteroffensive. Support is now waning and Russia is advancing with growing ease.
The stalemate is broken and Ukraine has a crucial shortage in both ammo and manpower. Moreover, it will not be taking back any of its lost territory. Kiev will be lucky to continue to exist as is. Ukraine will not “prevail” as Harris hopes. At best, Ukraine will withstand suffering until Russia is exhausted enough to stop.
Madam Vice President seems to consider the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian bodies beneath the once tranquil sunflower fields a worthy sacrifice, all in the name of ideas such as sovereignty and the international rules based order.
Harris does not admit the reality of Ukraine’s situation. She insists that Kiev keeps fighting a losing war solely for ideals, ones which the U.S. has itself broken many times over with impunity. Justifiably of course, right, Madam?
Vice President Harris does not have a remotely realistic concept of the war. She wants to put out the fire with more gasoline. This is most obvious when she speculated Putin may even invade Poland, the Baltics or other NATO states if he was victorious. This is beyond disingenuous - it is a negligent lie.
Putin has been toiling over Ukraine - an estranged ex-Soviet state - for years, though it is also the poorest in Europe. All this is to say that Russia’s attack on European NATO states is about as plausible as its invasion of the sun.
If Trump wins, he will likely cease support to Ukraine so that the government can seek an end to the war along the current lines of contact.
If Harris wins, the war may last a few more years before Ukraine is ultimately defeated. It will cost trillions of dollars and millions of lives.
This election is more than political. It is realism versus idealism, war versus peace and life versus death.
Acknowledgement: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the individual author.
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