When the 2024 Republican primary candidates first announced their campaigns, two things became readily apparent: scale and popularity.
A total of 15 major contenders entered the field (scale), but only one held popular support, former President Trump (popularity). Former President Trump held a 35% to over 50% consistent base, while everyone else had around 10% or less. This meant former President Trump was the favorite because the plurality system does not require majority support but rather the most support out of all candidates.
Many candidates eventually pulled out of the race as only five to six remained by the time of the first primary/caucus in Iowa. Here, former President Trump received 51.01% of the votes and 20 out of 40 delegates. While this may seem like just over 50%, due to the scale of the field, Trump came out of Iowa as the clear favorite.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis received the next highest with 21.23% of the votes and nine delegates. Former South Carolina Governor and U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley received 19.12% of the votes and eight delegates. Vivek Ramaswamy received the other three delegates with 7.66% of the votes.
The only hope for a competitive primary was a reduction in the field, one that New Hampshire brought. Only Ambassador Haley and former President Trump remained and the results showed. Trump received 54.3% compared to Haley’s 43.3% of the vote. Former President Trump took home 13 delegates (33 overall) to Ambassador Haley’s nine delegates (17 overall).
Given New Hampshire’s slight Democratic lean and very independent nature, some commentators, especially Republicans, see Ambassador Haley as a legitimate candidate to defeat former President Trump. Many say she is more likable to Independent and Democratic voters. Additionally, polls show she has a better chance of defeating President Biden in the 2024 election.
Yet, former President Trump has been more popular among Republicans and is likely to garner more total votes because more people will be excited for him. Polls also show that former President Trump is the expected winner against President Biden, whereas Ambassador Haley may not have the popularity among the party to get Republicans to the voting booth.
Still, former President Trump is the overwhelming favorite, and many commentators feel that if Ambassador Haley were to compete, she may lose her popularity among Democratic and Independent voters. This is because she would have to appeal more toward Republicans, thus negating the reason some Republicans might want her to win the Primaries in the first place.
Nevertheless, the media and many Americans are now happy to once again see some competition for president that does not simply pit President Biden against former President Trump.