Russia will win the war in Ukraine. Western media ignores this probable outcome, too busy coping with the fact that the vast quantities of military aid only slowed the inevitable defeat. So why then, if this conclusion has become obvious, has peace not been pursued by the West? Because the invasion was a cunning trap for the Russian bear.
Decades of Western intrigue and seduction of Russia's estranged Ukrainian sibling led to the full-scale invasion. This quickly escalated into a Western proxy war, one which the West has extended to inflict maximum pain on the insolent Russian regime. NATO supplies the hardware, Ukraine supplies the blood.
Proxy War
Despite the waning hope for Ukraine, Western support remains steadfast. The nations sending military aid to Kiev do not care about peace, prosperity or even freedom, they care only about power and influence over global affairs. NATO wants to punish Russia for its repeated unwillingness to acquiesce to their rules-based order.
This war is to decide which power, Russia or the West, will control Ukraine; sovereignty is a sick joke at best. If a nation relies on another power to fund its own war, it is not truly sovereign.
It will be difficult for Ukranians to enjoy the ‘freedom’ offered by the West when a third of the nation has fled, many thousands of their men are dead and the country has been destroyed.
The West does not regard the preservation of Ukrainian democracy to be the central goal, despite the platitudes. The true goal is the long sought-after regime change in Moscow, even President Biden admitted as much. If the destruction of Ukraine in a prolonged proxy war is the means to that end, then so be it.
The Russian invasion was the response to years of attempts by the West to seduce Ukraine; Putin opted to put an end to that in typical Russian fashion. For Russians, Ukraine is a part of their world. For example, the Russian words for Ukraine are malorussia, meaning little-Russia, and novorussia meaning new-Russia.
Most Russians consider Ukraine a sister nation, it is a place which their people have shed generations of blood to retain. Russia has been invaded through Ukraine three times in the last two centuries; it will not be given up simply because the post-Soviet world order demands it.
The history between this Russian borderland and Russia itself is layered and complicated, it is a matter of contentious debate. What is clear, however, is that Western simplification of the matter has become fatal.
Proxy Play-by-Play
Ukraine made a valiant defense during the first stage of the war in early 2022. Russia’s strategy during the war’s opening days was high-risk, with massive columns of armor on highways exposed to defending ambushes. It was an attempt to decapitate the Ukrainian regime via a rush to Kiev, which, if successful, would have swiftly ended the war with minimal bloodshed. Putin’s opening gamble did not pay off, however.
This failed gamble was considered a sign of Russian desperation and impotence by NATO, rather than hopeful confidence. In response, NATO members rushed to send unprecedented amounts of military aid to Ukraine, a non-NATO member, in order to further embarrass and weaken the brazen Putin.
Initially, this aid was effective. The Ukrainian counter-offensive in late 2022 saw large swaths of occupied territory liberated. By the end of that year, however, Ukraine had unknowingly reached its peak of offensive capability. The highly anticipated counteroffensive in the summer of 2023 was an utter failure, one which came at the height of Kiev’s foreign aid.
Since then, Russia has controlled the battlefield with advantages in manpower, firepower and ammunition. This overwhelming force has broken the stalemate. Russian air power has become a key factor in its offensives of late; Ukraine's once deterrent air-defense weapons are depleted and its emaciated Air Force has reached a point of exhaustion.
Russia's victory at the decisive battle of Bakhmut is a script for the likely outcome of the war itself. Brutal fighting for every inch, a contest of strength and endurance. Russia has the upper hand in both of these. Casualties will be high and losses will be expensive, but Russia will slowly and steadily inch forward. Kiev cannot withstand this asymmetric slugfest without extreme sacrifice. Yet NATO seems not to flinch at this prospect.
A Tranquil Bloom in the Sunflower Fields
Russia recently proposed a ceasefire on the terms of Ukraine ceding Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk to Moscow and ending the Ukrainian bid to enter NATO. Ukraine and its NATO allies predictably scoffed at this offer.
Western sanctions have failed, and the proxy war has only tightened Putin's grip on power. Russian wages are up and the economy is growing, more so than any other developed nation in fact. Putin is making allies outside the Western world, strengthening ties with BRICS nations, OPEC nations and most recently North Korea. His recent visit to Pyongyang yielded a rumor of North Korean troops being sent to Ukraine.
Ukraine is losing negotiating leverage by the day. This brutal war can be brought to an end with the flick of the pen. It seems NATO would rather see every Ukrainian soldier fertilize the sunflower fields before admitting defeat in its failed proxy war.
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